Communities in Eilean Siar are extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change and sea level rise, making a coastal flood forecasting system an essential resource. Having a proven track record of innovation in coastal flood forecasting and early warning across the UK, we were appointed to develop a system to provide advanced warning and support community resilience to flooding.

Due to the complexity and location of the islands, creating a practical solution required a unique approach. This included the development of several wave models, using innovative statistical analysis of offshore wave and wind data and creating bespoke tidal harmonic analysis for each community served by the system. Also using advanced multivariate metocean statistical datasets to develop the forecasting system, allowed our team to improve the overall robustness of the system across the islands.

By working closely with subcontractor Plan B, the SEPA Flood Warning Team and Comhairle nan Eilean Siar (Western Isles Council), we could tailor the project to meet the needs of multiple stakeholders. This included meeting SEPA's vision and flood warning obligations, whilst also ensuring the local requirements of Eilean Siar stakeholders and emergency responders were met.

With the forecasting system now live and operational 365 days a year, it can provide coastal flood risk forecasts four times per day and a five-day outlook. This allows SEPA staff to have advanced warning and take the necessary measures to protect those most vulnerable to flooding.