This one day course introduces and explains concepts used in probabilistic flood risk modelling; to give an overview of current methods, tools and applications with guidance on their pros and cons; and to provide hands-on experience.
Flood risk managers, flood warning/forecasting professionals and modellers interested in learning more or refreshing their knowledge of probabilistic analysis methods for flood risk assessment. This could include users of data products such as the Environment Agency’s NaFRA or tools such as MDSF2, or those reviewing probabilistic model outputs. The course will also be of interest to consultants, local authorities or water companies wanting to find out more about probabilistic risk-based methods in flood management.
The course will be most beneficial to those with some understanding of flood hydrology or hydraulic modelling, but will not assume detailed prior knowledge.
The course will discuss probabilistic risk modelling both in terms of underlying concepts and practical applications. River, urban and coastal environments will be covered.
- Basic concepts of risk and probabilistic modelling – what does it mean?
- An introduction to the relevant aspects of probability and statistics
- Approaches for combining statistical and hydraulic models
- An overview of concepts, methods, tools including RASP, MDSF2, SMERF, DTI-SAM and approaches for re-using detailed hydraulic models in probabilistic modelling
- How to interpret probabilistic model outputs such as NaFRA
- Practical, hands-on examples based on case studies
Prof Rob Lamb, Chief Scientist
Rob is JBA’s Chief Scientist and an Honorary Professor at LEC with over 20 years’ experience of academic and applied research in stochastic and process-based hydrology, computational hydraulics, flood risk analysis and climate change assessment.