Fay Fishford presents on ‘Predicting present and future coastal flood risk’

This Thursday 14 September, Fay Fishford, Marine and Coastal Risk Management Analyst, is presenting at the 1st International workshop on Waves, Storm Surges and Coastal Hazards.

Fay’s presentation is entitled ‘Predicting present and future coastal flood risk: North East Wales case study’ and will take place in the ‘Climate change and coastal flood risk’ session at 1.50pm.

Predicting present and future coastal flood risk: north east Wales case study

In 2013 high water levels and waves overtopped defences in several places along the north east Wales coastline. These events motivated this statistical and numerical modelling study, undertaken on behalf of Natural Resources Wales. This study provides improved predictions of the current and future threat of coastal flooding due to wind, waves and water levels.

A new statistical assessment of offshore conditions (surge, wind and waves) has been undertaken using the Heffernan and Tawn multi-variate method and used to simulate representative 10,000 year datasets of offshore conditions for current and future epochs. Wave modelling and emulation was then used to transform these into datasets of overtopping volume, from which return periods were calculated. Inundation modelling mapped the effect on local communities, aiding government planning and emergency response.

Calibration against instrumental data as well as previous flood events helped to increase confidence in the latest study. Additionally, the physical constraints of the location (namely the dimensions of the Irish Sea in which the study area sits) have been used to reduce uncertainty in the statistical distributions and future changes due to climate change.

Want to know more?

If you’re attending the conference you can watch Fay’s presentation where she’ll be happy to answer any questions around the project. You can also email Fay if you are unable to make it.

Why not visit our Marine and Coastal Risk Management web pages for more information on the other marine and coastal work we undertake.

We also offer a Coastal Flood Modelling and Forecasting training course which explores the drivers of coastal flood risk and the modelling and analytical approaches that have been developed to predict, forecast and prepare for it.



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